[Editor's
Note: The contents of this article have been used produce a column in
Kauai's Garden Island News that is titled "Island Breath" scheduled to
appear every other Sunday in the newspaper. The final published version
may vary from this text as TGI retains the right to correct and edit the material. Moreover, the copyright to the published version is held by TGI owner Kauai
Publishing. Some material in TGI columns may have appeared on www.islandbreath.org already]
Island Breath: Ho'okahi Kauai
by Juan Wilson on 25 March 2007
This is the first in a series of articles about Kauai. When my
wife, Linda Pascatore, and I began writing a Kauai-based website a few
years back, we selected the domain name www.IslandBreath.org. "Island
Breath" is also the name of this column. Why Island Breath?
The motto of the Hawaiian Islands is "Ua Mau Ke Ea O Ka `Aina I Ka Pono". According to the Online Hawaiian Dictionary (http://wehewehe.org), that translates to "The life (Ke Ea) of the land (O Ka `Aina ) is preserved (au mau) in righteousness (I Ka Pono)."
As is so often the case, Hawaiian phrases translate with multiple
meanings. Sometimes these are wildly different meanings, creating some
pretty amusing situations. But even within a single definition there is
significant variation of meaning.
• "ea" can mean: sovereignty, life spirit or breath
• "aina" can mean: country, land or island
• "pono" can mean: righteous, goodness, well-being or prosperity
We thought a variation of "Ua Mau Ke Ea O Ka `Aina I Ka Pono" might mean for Kauai that the "The life-breath of the island has well-being forever".
I hope we can all share in the "pono" of "ea o ka 'aina" - Island Breath.
What subjects will this column deal with? The answer involves another Hawaiian word –"Ho'okahi ".
• "ho'okahi" means: "alone, oneness, separately, solitude,
together as a unit, at the same time, or to make one
The focus of this column is "Ho'okahi Kauai". "The solitude,
separateness and oneness of Kauai". We are a very isolated place now,
and I think the future will make it even more so.
Why, in this era of the global economy, the internet, cellphones and
the iPod would we have to concern ourselves with the solitude,
separateness, and the isolation of Kauai? The answer lies in one
word, "OIL-LESS-NESS".
PEAK OIL
“My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a plane. His son will ride a camel.”- Anonymous Saudi Sheik – 1982
It took millions of years of high temperature and pressure to convert
organic matter into petroleum. Consequently,the oil we are burning
today is a once in a lifetime opportunity. After the bulk of it is gone
there will not be more. Moreover, there is not enough of any clean
handy substitute to maintain the lifestyle we have today. Oil has
powered the phenomenal economic and population growth of the last
century. As a result, the rate of oil extraction and use has grown
exponentially throughout that century.
Oil expert and investment banker Matthew Simmons claimed in 2005 that
when Saudi Arabian oil production peaks (enters the unavoidable state
of permanent production decline) the world oil production,
categorically, will have peaked.
Simmons’ book "Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy"
uses publicly available technical reports, written by Saudi-Aramco’s
own reservoir engineers, to document declining Saudi production. His
portrayal of their situation is dire indeed.
After assessing the production data from several independent reporting agencies, the website www.TheOilDrum.com
claims that Saudi production in 2006 is down 8% from its 2005 numbers.
The Oil Drum asserts that Saudi Arabia has now officially peaked and
that the pace of production decline there is likely to accelerate. The
2006 numbers may confirm Simmons’ 2005 prediction and that we are in a
worldwide oil production decline.
The peak plateau
of cheap oil production we have reached is about 85 million barrels of
oil per day (MBPD). This production level may be maintained for a
few years, but many analysts claim that we will not be able to hold
production at 85 MBPD for long or ever increase it over 90 MBPD.
Going forward oil production will get harder and more expensive. Having
reached "Peak Oil" production, from now on oil production will face an
inevitable decline. Reaching "Peak Oil" does not mean we have run out
of oil, but that we have run out of cheap oil, the easiest to
extract.
OIL DEPLETION PROTOCOL
In our worldwide economy, petrochemicals are the foundation of most
manufactured goods and prepared foods. Oil is the basis of the
material, processing, assembling, packaging and distribution of
everything from a corn chip to a computer chip.
These commercial products will be required in increasing amounts to
meet higher population levels and rising expectations. As a result, oil
prices will be ratcheting ever upwards until all the oil is used. It
will not be just the United States and Europe trying to secure oil
assets. To live in peace, eventually, all people will have to learn to
live with significantly less oil per person than Americans do today.
As we glide over the top of the peak of oil consumption, we will see
the demand for oil outstripping its production. Our present course of
oil usage will lead us into an endless conflict with with rest of the
world to maintain our "way of life". Our problems with Iraq
and Iran are symptomatic. Face offs with China, and others, over
remaining oil reserves are predictable.
Our leaders act as if there are only two alternatives: Continuing on a
path of growing oil-based consumerism and the resulting social
catastrophes, or reversing our economic growth and crashing our
civilization. They have chosen the former.
However, there are people looking for an alternative way to smooth our
descent and provide a soft landing. They are considering alternative
courses that would dramatically decrease our oil dependency and
profoundly change our lifestyles. Abandoning the global economy for a
local one is part of that plan.
Richard Heinberg is another expert on the Peak Oil crisis. In his book "The Oil Depletion Protocol",
Heinberg calls all countries to agree to reduce their oil consumption
by 3% per year to keep demand below the ever falling rate of expected
production.
This would create a framework
based on a measure of fairness and equity. And although it would mean a
worldwide acceptance of shrinking economic opportunities, reducing our
consumption of oil, especially for fuel, it would produce many
beneficial effects:
• Limit catastrophes like wars and conflicts over resources
• Slow the rate of climate change, and improve the environment
• Save some petroleum for such precious uses as electronics, chemistry and medicine
Obviously, to embrace the Oil Depletion Protocol would be to redefine
our basic values. We certainly would no longer define ourselves as
consumers. Incessant growth would no longer be the measure of our
success.
Dick Cheney has said that in this "War on Terror" our "lifestyle is not
negotiable". On the contrary, Mr. Cheney, the only way to survive the
"Oil War Terror" is to find alternative lifestyles. James Kunstler, the
author of "The Long Emergency" (www.kunstler.com)
has coined the term "Making Other Arrangements" to describe how the
oncoming failure of American consumerism will force us to change
our lifestyles. Whether by plan or necessity, I suggest that is
exactly what we are about to do.
MO LOCAL – MO BETTA
About a year ago, I was talking to Bicycle John in his Lihue shop. He
said that suddenly, when gasoline hit $4 a gallon, people he had never
seen before were coming in, interested in buying a bicycle. His
business doubled overnight. At some critical point, ($4.00 gas)
something changed in people's mind. All of a sudden it was a good idea
to buy a bicycle.
Something like that can happen at a larger scale too. There will come a
time when jet fuel reaches some crucial milestone. Maybe it will be
when oil is $100 a barrel. Whatever that price point, all of a sudden
it won't make business sense to ship an avocado, orange or tomato from
Florida to Hawaii. At that point, for the average suburban family it
won't make sense to fly a 10,000 mile round trip for a week at the
beach in a Kekaha vacation-rental.
When that happens, we in Hawaii will experience an economic sea change.
Things we took for granted will be gone. Things we ignored will be
important.
As oil production declines, to succeed on Kauai, we will have to grow
about ten times as much food as we grow now. In a simplified
sense, for us to keep our civilization we will have to find a way to
"keep the lights on", or at least some of them. That will mean slowing
down a bit and harvesting sustainable sources of local power derived
from sun, wind and water.
We will have to find another engine than tourism to pull our economic
train. And that will have to be an economic model not so dependent on
the outside world. We will be more on our own, more isolated and more
together – In other words more –
"Ho'okahi Kauai"
Needless to say, the better prepared we are, the better it will go.
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